Formula 1 and trading share the exact same rule: when you start from a bad position, you don't win by taking crazy risks. You win by keeping your head, managing your tires, and taking what the track gives you.
Last weekend in Baku, Max Verstappen qualified 8th on a narrow street circuit with zero room for error. Most drivers would have over-driven and ended up in the wall. Max didn't. He drove a patient, surgical race through two Safety Cars to finish 2nd - closing to within 0.2 seconds of race winner George Russell at the line.
Monday’s stock market gave us a similar test. Growth and tech pulled back across the board, dropping our overall portfolio by 1.60%. When the market hands you a red day, the temptation is to react to the noise. But just like Max in Baku, you don't panic-sell - you look at your key support levels and let the weekly candle close make the call.
1. ADOBE ($ADBE) | TESTING THE $230.00 FLOOR
Monday Close: $231.01 (-1.89%)
The Setup: Adobe dipped as low as $224.67 during the day before buyers stepped in right around the $230.00 Fibonacci support level, pushing the stock back up to close at $231.01.
The Plan: We are giving Adobe a 5-day grace period to hold its long-term trendline retest. Monday's quick bounce off $224.67 is exactly why we wait for Friday's close instead of selling on an intraday dip.
2. NETFLIX ($NFLX) | WATCHING THE $70.10 SHELF
Monday Close: $69.23 (-2.69%)
The Setup: Netflix slipped just below our $70.10 breakout shelf during Monday's selling.
The Plan: A single day under a support line during a broad market pullback isn't an automatic exit. We wait to see if $69.20 holds as a temporary dip or if sellers force a full weekly candle close below $70.10.
3. RIVIAN ($RIVN) | REGULATORY SHIFTS vs. THE $14.20 BASE
Monday Close: $14.79 (-4.40%)
The Setup: The rollback of federal fuel-economy mandates gives legacy players like Ford and GM room to pull back EV spending and pivot back to profitable hybrids.
The Plan: While the headline sounds like an EV headwind, legacy automakers backing off actually clears the competitive field for pure-play electric trucks like the R1T. Rivian remains well above our $14.20 support floor. As long as that weekly base holds, the thesis remains intact.
4. WATCHLIST & KEY LEVELS
NOVO NORDISK ($NVO): Closed at $38.71 (-0.23%), holding steady right above its $38.50 base.
ROCKET LAB ($RKLB): Closed at $72.19 (-2.38%), maintaining its steady uptrend well above our entry level.
MICRON ($MU): Trading around $1,082.20, watching for a deeper pullback toward support.
CONSTELLATION ENERGY ($CEG): Bumping against the $265.00 resistance level. This $265 mark is the multi-month supply cap - a clean weekly candle close above $265 converts old overhead resistance into a primary support shelf for a move toward $280+.
TODAY’S CHECKLIST
Protect Your Capital: A bad day or a market-wide dip is only fatal if you panic-sell right at major support.
Respect the Weekly Close: Dips below key numbers happen all the time during retests. Let Friday's close tell you if support held or failed.
Stick to the System: You don't need to win every single day to win the year. Focus on clean execution and let the process do the work.
Note: This edition is arriving a bit earlier than usual today as I am out of the office on business on Wednesday & Thursday. Have a great rest of the week, and we'll catch up again on Friday.
Disclaimer: The Slow Capitalist is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. All content represents the personal opinions of the author. Investing involves significant risk, including the loss of principal. Discuss your individual financial situation and risk tolerance with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.