THE WEEK IN THREE SENTENCES
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.00%, and 16 of 18 Fed participants penciled in another hike before year-end. Despite widespread rate pressure across growth assets, our system executed a planned profit realization on CrowdStrike (CRWD) at a +158% net gain while evaluating support levels on Netflix (NFLX) and CoreWeave (CRWV). By managing risk strictly off weekly candle closes rather than daily noise, the portfolio navigated late-cycle volatility with complete discipline.
1. THE FED DECISION - WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED
Wednesday marked the Federal Reserve's first rate increase in three years, lifting the Fed Funds target range to 3.75% - 4.00%.
While the 25bps hike was priced in by futures markets (holding a 92% probability heading into Wednesday), the dot-plot projection delivered the true macro message: 16 of 18 participants expect another rate increase, with four seeing two more as possible before year-end.
What matters far more than the policy rate itself is the benchmark U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield touching 5.00% alongside WTI Crude anchored above $100/bbl. Higher discount rates force valuation multiple compression across high-growth assets and software duration. In a 5.00% yield regime, future earnings get discounted aggressively, making systematic risk rules essential.
2. CRWD - THE FULL EXIT IN CONTEXT
CrowdStrike (CRWD) no longer appears in the active holdings table. The position was systematically unwound across three precise tranches, locking in a +115.7% total net return across the entire lifetime of the trade.
Tranche 1 (May 19, 2026): Trimmed 12 pre-split shares at $620.00 (a +69.6% gain from our $365.50 entry). Following CrowdStrike’s 4-for-1 stock split on July 2, 2026, our remaining 13 pre-split shares expanded into 52 split-adjusted shares.
Tranche 2 (August 31, 2026): Sold 26 split-adjusted shares at $230.00 (+151.7% split-adjusted gain over our $91.38 cost basis).
Tranche 3 (September 17, 2026): Sold the final 26 split-adjusted shares at $242.00 limit (+164.8% split-adjusted gain).
The exit was built on three simultaneous signals:
RSI Momentum Divergence: Price pushed to fresh highs near $242 - $245 while daily and weekly RSIs printed lower peaks - a classic sign that momentum was fading while price climbed.
Elliott Wave Exhaustion: Price hit the 1.0 Fibonacci extension target of the primary impulse at the all-time high zone.
FRF Yield Filter: Implied return fell below the 5.00% risk-free rate under active macro rules.
What happened after? CRWD sits near $241 - essentially where our final tranche was executed. The framework doesn't promise selling the exact dollar top. Missing the final few dollars of a parabolic top is a far better failure mode than holding extended momentum assets into multi-month drawdowns. The discipline that produced that +115.7% net win across all three tranches is the exact same discipline being applied to the rest of the portfolio.
3. NETFLIX - ONE ANALYST, ONE DOWNGRADE, AND THE $70.10 SUPPORT SHELF
Wells Fargo downgraded Netflix to Underweight on Friday, cutting their price target from $80 to $57. The data underlying the downgrade was specific: an 8% YoY decline in per-subscriber daily viewership in H1 2026, with Top 100 Original viewing hours projected to fall 21% in H2. The stock pulled back -4.67% to close Friday at $71.79.
The instinctive reaction is to panic-sell on headline news. But one analyst's downgrade - even with specific engagement data - is not the same as a confirmed thesis break. The broader Wall Street consensus PT on NFLX sits at $93.88 (implying 30% upside), with 31 of 49 analysts maintaining a Buy rating.
The more disciplined approach is to let the chart confirm or deny:
The $70.10 Previous Breakout Shelf: $70.10 represents the prior swing breakout high on the weekly chart. In market structure mechanics, former key resistance converts into primary institutional support.
Friday's Live Test: On Friday, NFLX flushed to an intraday low of $70.11 - testing the support shelf to the cent - before buyers stepped in to push the closing candle back up to $71.79.
Because NFLX defended $70.10 on a weekly closing basis, the support floor held. A weekly candle close beneath $70.10 is our explicit trigger to look for the exit. Until a weekly candle closes below $70.10, the downgrade is one analyst's view - uncomfortable, worth monitoring, but not yet confirmed by price action.
System Action: HOLD ON WATCH.
4. COREWEAVE - FIBONACCI PRECISION OVER ARBITRARY STOPS
CoreWeave (CRWV) experienced headline pressure following an expanded $3.7B convertible note offering, dropping intraday before recovering to close Friday at $81.36 (+1.85%).
Rather than using arbitrary stops, our technical framework measures the primary impulse from the $60.55 low to the $117.49 high ($56.94 range):
0.786 Fibonacci Retracement ($73.05): A weekly close beneath $73.05 serves as our primary Red Flag (signaling momentum breakdown).
$60.55 Swing Low: A weekly close below $60.55 represents a 100% retracement of the move and serves as our Hard Invalidation / Exit Sign.
At $81.36, CRWV sits +$8.31 (+11.4%) above the $73.05 red flag line and +$20.81 (+34.4%) above the $60.55 floor. Institutional conviction was further validated by Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment executing an open-market purchase of 239,000 shares ($19M) at these exact levels on Thursday.
System Action: HOLD. Technical structure remains firmly intact above $73.05.
5. UBER & ROCKET LAB - TIMING & THESIS EXECUTION
Uber Technologies (UBER - $70.50): Filled at our $70.76 limit order on Wednesday - the same day the Fed raised rates. Notably, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi purchased 141,000 shares at $70.96 the day prior, alongside $5.3M in COO insider purchases. Securing an entry below the CEO's purchase price on the day of a Fed hike speaks to strong relative value, with a 17x forward P/E pricing in macro risks cleanly.
Rocket Lab (RKLB - $64.57): Completed pre-flight testing for Neutron's "Hungry Hippo" fairing and finalized its $1.94B ATM offering - fully funding the Iridium acquisition and clearing capital overhangs. With a $2.36B backlog (+137% YoY) and 5 secured Neutron missions, the fundamental thesis remains strong ahead of Neutron's first orbital launch.
6. SUMMARY: CRITICAL TECHNICAL BOUNDARIES FOR NEXT WEEK
Holding | Friday Close | Key Technical Boundary | Framework Rule | Action Directive |
CRWV | $81.36 | $73.05 (0.768 Fib Red Flag) / $60.55 (Invalidation) | Closed +$8.31 above red flag | HOLD |
NFLX | $71.79 | $70.10 (Previous Breakout Support Shelf) | Tested $70.11 low; closed above | HOLD ON WATCH |
ADBE | $248.92 | $240.00 (Weekly Close Floor) | Closed +$8.92 above floor | HOLD |
KTOS | $47.46 | $43.00 (52-Week Low "Iron Floor") | Closed +$4.46 above floor | HOLD |
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
Micron Technology (MU): Fiscal Q4 earnings confirmed for Wednesday, September 30. Trading at a low forward multiple relative to High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) demand for AI server architectures, a post-earnings pull-back toward key support levels could present a disciplined entry setup.
NFLX & CRWV Weekly Closes: $70.10 is the line for NFLX, and $73.05 is the red flag for CRWV. No emotional reactions until weekly candles settle.
Fed Speaker Commentary: Multiple central bank officials speak next week. Their tone regarding the pace of future rate hikes will determine how long active macro restriction rules remain in force.
The Slow Capitalist is a personal investment publication documenting a systematic technical framework. Nothing in this issue constitutes formal financial advice. Always perform independent research prior to executing market transactions.