The Slow Capitalist | Edition 06: Paddling Into the Chop

October in Plettenberg Bay can be a changeable time of year. The onshore wind picks up, the swell gets messy, and conditions can turn quickly.

If you surf here regularly, you learn that there's little point fighting the ocean when it's working against you. Paddle out in the middle of a blow and you may spend more time getting battered than catching waves. Sometimes the sensible decision is to wait on the beach.

Markets can be much the same.

Last week, we talked about damage limitation. We stuck to our levels, allowed our five-day grace periods to work, and waited for the weekly close rather than reacting to every intraday move.

A week later, we have more information and a fresh set of decisions to make.

Mid-week, renewed concerns about the Middle East, oil prices and the outlook for AI investment put pressure on markets. CoreWeave fell 7.77% on Thursday alone, following fresh concerns about OpenAI's revenue outlook.

By Friday, US markets had recovered some ground. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained around 0.6%, but oil remained expensive and Treasury yields were still high. The pressure had eased in equities, but the underlying concerns hadn't disappeared.

Our job isn't to predict every headline. It's to know which levels matter and avoid making decisions simply because the market has had a bad day. We don't have to catch every wave.

Here's where things stood at Friday's close, and what the charts are telling us now.

CoreWeave ($CRWV) Friday close: $82.08: CoreWeave had a difficult week. On Thursday, it fell 7.77% as concerns about OpenAI's reported revenue outlook weighed on AI-related shares. It recovered slightly on Friday, closing at $82.08. Our key technical level remains $73.05. The stock previously rose from around $60.55 to $117.49. Based on our Fibonacci analysis of that move, $73.05 is the 78.6% retracement level we use to assess whether the larger technical setup remains intact. At Friday's close, CRWV was still above it. That doesn't mean the risks have gone away. The recent selling is a reminder that AI-related shares can be sensitive to changing expectations. But for now, our level hasn't been breached. We hold and continue to watch.

Netflix ($NFLX) Friday close: $70.30: Netflix recovered from Monday's low of $66.54 and finished Friday at $70.30, above our $69.03 support level. It did, however, give back some ground on Friday itself. The recovery is encouraging, but one better week doesn't settle the matter. We want to see whether support continues to hold as earnings approach. For now, the position stays in place.

JD.com ($JD) & Adobe ($ADBE) JD Friday close: $27.09 ADBE Friday close: $242.27: These two positions show why we allow a trade time to develop rather than reacting to the first move below support. In the previous edition, we discussed Adobe's fall to $224.67 and its recovery above our $230 level by the Friday close. JD, meanwhile, finished that week at $25.78, below our $26.46 reference level. Since then, both charts have improved. JD has recovered to $27.09, back above $26.46. Adobe closed Friday at $242.27, comfortably above $230. The grace period gave us time to assess the price action rather than sell in haste. The lesson isn't that every share will recover. It's that we should give a trade the time our rules allow, then judge it on the evidence.

Friday close: $160.34: Booking remains one of the weaker positions in the portfolio. It closed Friday at $160.34, still below the area around $164 that we want to see reclaimed.

The technical picture has deteriorated, and the 5-day grace period has officially expired. That is a warning we cannot ignore. In a lesser system, this is an automatic sell. But this is exactly where our 6-Trigger Framework proves its worth.

Our rules explicitly state that we need a minimum of two triggers to exit a core position.

Because we only have one trigger, we hold. We do not invent new rules mid-trade. Exiting on Trigger 1 alone is how you get shaken out at the bottom.

But that doesn't mean we hold blindly. We are keeping the position on a very short leash. When BKNG eventually bounces back to the $164.00 level, it will perform a "backside retest." We will use that bounce to test the chart. If it gets rejected at $164, and a second trigger develops, we will execute a clean exit and deploy that capital elsewhere. We have better structural setups waiting in names like CEG and KGC, and we won't let our cash get trapped in dead money.

Rivian ($RIVN) Friday close: $13.96 Last week, Rivian closed at $14.30 after briefly trading below our $14.20 level. This week, it finished at $13.96, closing below that same level. The short-term picture has weakened. But before drawing a conclusion, we look at the wider chart. Based on our analysis, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $8.26 to $22.64 sits exactly at $13.75. Crucially, a major rising trendline intersects right in this same $13.75 to $13.90 pocket. When technical levels converge like this, they give us a powerful area to monitor. The $14.20 break is a warning (Trigger 1), but the longer-term confluence gives us a reason to watch the candle action very closely here before making our next decision.

Novo Nordisk ($NVO) Friday close: $38.64: Novo has recovered to $38.64, moving back above our $38.50 short-term level. That's a step in the right direction, particularly after last week's close at $37.32. It doesn't remove the wider risks, and we are not declaring the problem solved. Our larger downside reference remains $35.12. For now, we continue to monitor both levels.

Constellation Energy ($CEG) Friday close: $298.07: Constellation Energy has rallied sharply. Last week, we mentioned a deep limit order at $215–$220 in case of a total market flush. We are keeping that safety net alive, but given the strength of the current rotation, we are layering a closer, primary entry zone at $269.70–$271.00. That zone brings together two Fibonacci references: the 61.8% retracement of the recent move ($247.20 to $309.80), and the 38.2% retracement of the historical All-Time Low to All-Time High move. When separate technical levels converge, we let the price come to us rather than chase a green candle.

Kinross Gold ($KGC) Kinross is another name we're adding to the watchlist. The long-term chart is approaching an area of massive structural confluence. Our analysis identifies a multi-decade trendline connecting the 1996 high ($30.75) and the 2008 high ($24.12). The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $1.35 to $39.11 sits exactly at $20.23. And right now, the 200-week exponential moving average is converging perfectly on that exact $20.20 to $20.25 zone. Trendline + 50% Fib + 200W EMA. That is our strike zone. We are doing the work before committing capital.

Zeta Global ($ZETA) Friday close: $33.09: ZETA remains one of the stronger positions in the portfolio. It closed Friday at $33.09, holding above our $30.26 reference level (the 23.6% retracement of the ATL to ATH move). As long as the price remains above $30.26, we let the winner run while continuing to manage the risk.

1. Don't fight the market's noise. Headlines and sharp price swings are part of investing. We don't have to react to every move. We need to know which levels matter and what action each one requires.

2. Require a 2-Trigger Minimum. A technical break is a warning. Before acting, we run the stock through our 6-Trigger framework, requiring a minimum of two triggers to exit. The aim is to avoid impulsive decisions without allowing a grace period to become an excuse for holding blindly. BKNG proves this rule.

3. Look for confluence, but don't treat it as a guarantee. A single technical level can fail. When several independent references meet in the same area—like Rivian’s $13.75 base or Kinross Gold's $20.23 strike zone—the zone becomes exponentially stronger.

4. One portfolio, different decisions. Some charts are recovering (JD, ADBE). Others are testing longer-term support (RIVN). Some remain strong (ZETA). They are different situations and need to be managed accordingly.

This was a difficult week for parts of the technology sector, and the recovery in US equities on Friday didn't remove all the uncertainty.

Some of our positions have recovered. Others remain under pressure. We've also identified a couple of potential opportunities, but neither requires us to rush into a trade. That's the point of having a framework. We set our levels in advance, allow for normal market noise where appropriate, and apply our rules consistently.

In Plettenberg Bay, you can't control the wind or the swell. You can decide when to paddle out, when to wait, and when conditions aren't worth fighting.

The same applies to markets. We don't need to catch every wave. We need to be around for the next good one.

Have a great weekend.