The past couple of weeks have been horrendous for my portfolio. I cut CoreWeave and Rivian, trimmed Rocket Lab, then last Monday exited Netflix and trimmed Booking. That’s a lot of difficult decisions in a short time. I won’t pretend they felt easy.
When you close positions, it’s natural to wonder whether you acted too soon. The rules don’t take away that feeling. They give me something to fall back on when the feeling gets loud.
Those exits and trims left me with cash. I don’t have to rush it into another stock. I can wait for prices to come to the levels I’ve marked, then watch how they close there.
This week brought another test: ServiceNow, one of my holdings, fell sharply after reporting results. And Friday’s sell-off made the whole week feel worse than it was.
Friday was rough. The week was less so.
On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.82%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.86% and the Dow lost 1.09%. Intel’s weaker outlook hit chip stocks hard. Results from Amazon and Alphabet earlier in the week brought back a familiar question: will all this spending on AI pay off?
But over the full week, the losses were smaller: the S&P 500 was down 0.6%, the Nasdaq 2.0% and the Dow 0.9%. Friday’s drop was larger than each index’s net loss for the week. October was still a rough month for the Nasdaq—its worst since March 2025.
ServiceNow: a good business can still fall hard
ServiceNow had the roughest week of anything I own. After reporting results on Wednesday evening, its shares fell 26.9% on Thursday to $109.67, then closed Friday at $105.12. At Friday’s close, the shares were still about 19% above my $88.11 entry.
The business is still growing. Subscription revenue rose 21% from a year ago, and management raised its target for AI-related contracts to at least $1.7 billion this year. But adjusted earnings were $1.00 a share, just below the $1.02 analysts expected. The company also forecast slower growth in contracted revenue due over the next year: 18.5% next quarter, down from 20.5% growth this quarter.
That doesn’t mean the business is broken. But the price reaction is a reminder that a company can keep growing and its shares can still fall hard when expectations are high.
My plan: I’m holding for now and watching how the next weekly candle closes around my decision level. If the zone around 95 - 100 fails, I’ll exit. I don’t want to sell just because the fall feels awful, but I don’t want to ignore my plan because the shares are still above my entry either.
On my monthly chart, see how the price has pulled back sharply from the confluence area 50W EMA and main 38.2% (ATL to ATH). If the small 78.6% fails, the main 61.8% level is where I’ll be watching. That’s one possible path on my chart, not a prediction. My decision will come from my rules and the price action around the level I’ve set.
What I’m watching
Marvell and Lumentum. Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Marvell is in advanced talks to buy Lumentum in a possible all-stock deal. The report said an announcement could come as soon as next week, but there’s no confirmed deal. Both companies are on my watchlist, so I’ll wait for confirmed news before drawing conclusions.
Kinross Gold. Kinross closed Friday at $20.13, just below the $20.29 area I’ve been watching. That brings it to my level, but reaching a level isn’t a buy signal. The monthly candle has closed just below it. I’m watching to see whether the longer-term trendline holds before I decide what to do.
Eli Lilly. Lilly reported third-quarter revenue of $24.4 billion, up 39% from a year earlier, and raised its full-year revenue forecast to $91–92 billion. Sales volume rose, but realized prices fell. I’ll be watching how the company balances those two things as it grows.
Cash in hand, markets coming to us
The exits and trims left me with cash. That doesn’t mean I need to find something to buy this weekend. I have levels marked. Now I’m watching the candles: how price closes as it reaches those areas, and whether the setup still makes sense.
A touch of a level isn’t enough. If the price holds and the chart supports the idea, I can consider it. If it doesn’t, I can wait. The cash can stay where it is until the market gives me a setup that fits my rules.
Next week
Wednesday, November 4: Novo Nordisk reports results.
Thursday, November 5: Kratos reports results.
Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET: The U.S. October jobs report is scheduled.
Marvell and Lumentum could have news if the reported talks progress.
Friday felt like the whole week had gone wrong. It hadn’t. I can’t control the market’s mood, but I can decide when a holding no longer fits my plan. And with cash in hand, I don’t have to chase. I can wait, watch the candles and let the market come to my levels.
Have a good rest of the weekend.
The Slow Capitalist is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal or tax advice. The views are my own. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of your principal. Consider your own circumstances and risk tolerance, and speak with a qualified professional before making investment decisions. I may hold positions in the securities discussed.